THE EFFECT OF CASH CONVERSION CYCLE AND FREE CASH FLOW ON STOCK RETURN WITH EXCHANGE RATE AS MODERATING VARIABLE IN COAL MINING COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE, 2022–2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31959/jm.v15i3.4062Abstract
Introduction: This study aims to examine the effect of the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) and Free Cash Flow (FCF) on stock returns, and to analyze the moderating role of the Rupiah/US Dollar (IDR/USD) exchange rate on both relationships, using coal mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2022–2024 period as the object of study.
Methods: A quantitative approach was applied using balanced panel data covering 22 issuers and 66 observations. The first and second hypotheses were tested through panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) using the Panel EGLS Cross-section Weights method, while the third and fourth hypotheses were tested using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA); model selection was based on the Chow Test and Hausman Test, complemented by classical assumption tests for normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity.
Results: The estimation results show that CCC has a negative and highly significant effect on stock returns, indicating that a more efficient cash conversion cycle corresponds to higher returns received by investors. FCF is proven to have a positive and significant effect, confirming that strong free cash flow serves as a positive signal to the market. The exchange rate negatively moderates both relationships: depreciation of the Rupiah intensifies the negative impact of a long CCC due to rising foreign-currency-denominated operating costs, while high exchange rate uncertainty leads investors to demand a higher risk premium, thereby weakening the positive effect of FCF on stock returns.
Conclusion and suggestion: These findings underscore the importance of integrating internal efficiency factors and macroeconomic risk into investment strategy and financial management in the coal mining sector.
Keywords: Cash Conversion Cycle, Coal Mining, Exchange Rate, Free Cash Flow, Stock Return
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